I'm thinking: The Israel missile crisis

Arrow II misses its mark

By Micah D. Halpern

Issue of July 31, 2009 / 10 Av 5769

The threat of nuclear attack by Iran is real; it is as palpable in the corridors of Washington as it is on the street of Tel Aviv - and London and Madrid and Cairo. The only way world leaders could close their eyes and sleep at night was with the knowledge that Israel had developed a secret weapon, the Arrow II, an anti-nuclear missile.

All that has changed.

It is no secret that Israel has been actively developing defenses to protect the country from hostile enemy attacks with the greatest threat emanating from Iran. The Arrow II was Israel’s answer to Iran’s nuclear weapons program. Developed together with the United States, the Arrow II had all the hallmarks of a great defense system.

But last week, in three separate attempts, the Arrow II failed to engage. Israel tested the accuracy and efficacy of the Arrow II with the US as a cosponsor. A fake Shabab, a US missile that closely mimics Iran’s nuclear delivery technology, was launched off the coast of California.

The test was not performed in secret. Defense and military personnel and on-lookers waited for the Israeli secret weapon to launch and to strike down the attacking ordinance.

And waited.     And waited.     It did not happen. The Arrow II detected the missile but did not launch to destroy the Shabab. Three times in a row it did not launch.

The system failed because all the variables were not met. This new Arrow II that failed to launch in California has a failsafe system that is supposed to prevent a misfire - that is supposed to prevent a computer from mistakenly shooting down a commercial airline jet that is thought to be a hostile bogie.

The test was a devastating blow to Israel’s defense establishment. It was a wake-up call to defense experts and world leaders. It was a silent cry of victory from Iran.

These experiments should have taken place total under the military cloak of secrecy but they did not. Those in the loop were treated to a very clear understanding of the failure of the Israeli defense system. Iran now knows, along with the rest of the world, that there is no realistic check against their nuclear development. The situation for Israel is bad, very bad.

Israel now knows that it has absolutely no significant tool with which to defend against Iran. That means the timetable that Israel established for staving off a nuclear attack from Iran is nowhere close to accurate. This means the West is in real trouble and Israel is on the front line.

It is not misplaced trust to continue to believe that Israel will defend itself - and by extension all other friendly nations - against nuclear attack. But it will not happen by way of the Arrow II. The nuclear clock is ticking.

Micah D. Halpern is a columnist and a social and political commentator. Read his latest book THUGS. He maintains The Micah Report www.micahhalpern.com.