I'm thinking: Mubarak on center stage

By Micah Halpern

President Hosni Mubarak wrapped up a successful trip to Washington, DC.  He proved to the Obama administration that he is worth the $1.5 billion a year and $28 billion over 30 years Egypt received in US aid. He proved himself by undertaking the responsibility of playing middleman in negotiations between Palestinians and Israelis.

Mubarak’s intentions might be well placed, but I am not as convinced as Obama that he will successfully accomplish the task.

The president of Egypt is a wily character. Hosni Mubarak has two principle interests. The first is to maintain his personal place of power. The second is to maintain the position Egypt has attained as preeminent power in the Arab world, a position he, as senior statesman and despotic president, carved out for his country.

Mubarak is plagued by many challenges. His life is in constant danger, threatened from within by Islamic extremists who want him assassinated. He holds his position with the help of his well-trained, brutal, internal police force. And he lacks a successor. The average annual income in Egypt is $1800. According to the World Bank that is the lowest in the Arab world - even below Syria. The aid that Egypt gets from the US is vital to their survival.

The 81 year old leader of Egypt has been in office since 1981 and is running out of time. The Egyptian model of leadership, from Nasser to Sadat to Mubarak, is a military model. Mubarak is grooming his son Gamal as successor and has secured a place for him in the Egyptian Parliament and even brought Gamal to Washington with him. But Gamal lacks military experience and so, in Egyptian eyes, he lacks gravitas as a leader.

Before leaving for Washington DC, Mubarak had scheduled a meeting with thirteen Palestinian groups to take place upon his return to the region.

Immediately upon arriving back in Egypt, Mubarak postponed that meeting until the conclusion of the holy month of Ramadan - which has only just begun. The focus of the meeting was the continuation of negotiations about the release of Gilad Shalit.

The significance here is that Hamas is not entirely in charge in Gaza and certainly not in charge of Gilad Shalit and not able to bring about a complete lull between the Palestinians in Gaza and Israel. Hamas is the largest group in Gaza, but they are not the only ones with power and say. Mubarak knows that.

Ramadan is the Muslim month of introspection and repentance. It is the time when Muslims fast during the day and eat and celebrate at night. Ramadan is the excuse that Mubarak gave for postponing the meeting. The real reason is the internal conflict between Fatah and Hamas - and Fatah is not one of the thirteen groups Mubarak will be meeting with. Forty to fifty Gazan Palestinians were killed in a recent power struggle between Fatah and Hamas. Another hundred plus were injured. Until Fatah and Hamas sort out their problems in Gaza it will be impossible for any peace to be brokered between Palestinians and Israelis. Mubarak, wily and wise, has bought himself some time.

When the time is right, Mubarak will push the US agenda. He will use Egypt’s strength to influence all factions within Gaza that fighting Israel is not a worthy venture. He will point out that Egypt, kingpin of the Middle East, has a cold peace with Israel. And Egypt will be very well paid for their intervention on behalf of the United States.