Halpern: The freeze is hardly frozen

I'm thinking

by Micah D.  Halpern

Issue of December 18, 2009/ 1 Tevet 5770

As a rule I have no sympathy for politicians. I respect the positions they hold and the mantles of leadership they assume. I respect the democracies they represent and the countries they serve. But they serve because they choose to serve, because they work hard to win their positions — they do not need my sympathy.

Every once in a while, however, I find myself feeling sorry for a politician who finds him or herself in a difficult position. I do not envy Benjamin Netanyahu right now; I feel sympathy for him.

The prime minister of Israel is caught in the proverbial Catch-22.

The Obama administration has begun to apply significant pressure on Netanyahu to make concessions. According to a recent poll, the majority of the Israeli electorate is reluctant to accept their prime minister’s proposal for a ten-month freeze in settlement activity. His coalition is hanging on by a thread because many in his own party and to the right are ideologically opposed to a settlement freeze.

This is not about ideology — it is about politics. And in politics a leader will often make concessions.  Concessions are the most common tool used by politicians and government leaders to achieve compromises. Compromises are when a little is given in order to gain a lot. But that is not why the ten-month settlement freeze was announced.

For Israel’s prime minister, right now it’s all about bluffing. Bibi Netanyahu is both bluffing and calling a bluff.

In calling for a ten-month moratorium on settlement activity Netanyahu is saying to the Palestinians: OK, the ball is now firmly in your court, let me see your stuff.   Bibi is waiting to see what the Palestinians are willing to do. And he is calling the bluff of the United States. He is saying: See what I have done; see how far I have gone; now you go apply pressure on the Palestinians.

And it’s working, sort of.

The US has definitely begun to apply pressure on the Palestinians, but soon enough they will resume the pressure on the Israelis. Ten months is not a very long time, almost a month has passed since the announcement of the moratorium.  But ten months is certainly enough time to find out if the Palestinians are serious and have a plan or if they simply want to postpone, pander and complain. Netanyahu is putting his own form of pressure on the Obama administration, a new administration thinking it has re-invented the wheel.

In fact, if they had studied historical precedent, the administration would know that every Israeli government has been willing to make hard choices and to make concessions if the Palestinians were willing to do the same.

Israelis seem to recognize the political predicament their prime minister is in right now. They understand the need to go along with his decision and that explains why, when the freeze was announced, important government voices were not raised in protest. They know what the rest of the world has not yet figured out.

The moratorium was just a gesture. Important, but still a gesture. And if the Palestinians do not respond as they should, that gesture will be rescinded in a lot less than ten months.

Micah D. Halpern is a columnist and a social and political commentator. Read his latest book THUGS. He maintains The Micah Report at www.micahhalpern.com