Halpern: Politics, Palestinian-style

I'm thinking

by Micah D. Halpern

By announcing that he will not run for re-election in the election that he himself called, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, leader of the Fatah movement, is sacrificing his position of power for the good of his people - or so he would have us believe. The implications of Abbas’s decision reach further than his Fatah party, further than the Palestinian people, and further than Israel-Palestinian relations.

Palestinian elections are now scheduled for January 24, 2010. In choosing not to run, Abbas is sending a de facto message to terrorists that it is okay to launch terror attacks against Israel. And he is blaming it all on Israel. Here is what Abbas said recently: “It appears they [Israel] do not want peace, and they don’t want to stop settlement, and they don’t want the vision of two states, so I don’t know what they want.”

By not running, Abbas is effectively destroying Fatah - but it is Israel’s fault, not his own. There is only one person respected enough and beloved enough and with enough clout with the Palestinian people to win the election. His name is Marwan Barghouti. He is sitting in an Israeli prison serving time for committing acts of terror and Barghouti is not about to get out any time soon.

Unless Abbas recants, which he very well might do, Hamas will sweep the election. Abbas has been an ineffectual leader. The Palestinian economy has not thrived, terror has not come under control, and there has been no movement toward peace with the Israelis. Barghouti, if he were to be in a position of power, would stand firm on the issue of ‘67 borders. In response to a question I once asked this intellectual in worker’s clothing, he told me point blank:  “Accepting Israel with the ‘67 borders was my compromise.”

If Hamas wins - and Hamas will win because there is no alternative other than Abbas, extremist Palestinian leadership will be the wave of the future.

Here’s the twist. According to the most recent polls, Abbas’ approval rating went up when he announced his decision not to stand for election.

Abbas is making this an election not about Palestinian leadership, but about the failure of Israel. He is trying to deflect Hamas’ attacks against his presidency. Hamas preaches that Abbas has failed to gain anything from Israel and that Abbas has become an agent of the United States and the Israelis. Hamas calls him the ultimate collaborator. The decision not to run lends Abbas credibility in the eyes of the Palestinians and bolsters his strength.

He is trying to transform his image from a weakling to a superhero, to the person who - like Arafat - holds the vision of the future and can stand up to world powers to achieve Palestinian goals. Hamas is calling Abbas a loser, a traitor, a turncoat. He is asserting that he has vision and they do not, that all they have are bombs and bullets.

The stakes are high. Only Hamas has nothing to lose. If Abbas recants and wins the election, they have lost nothing. If they win, the West loses, Israel loses, and the Palestinians lose any hope of a real future.

There is a silver lining. If Hamas wins and takes control of all the Palestinian Authority, not just Gaza, the situation with Israel comes into clear focus. It is either black or white for Hamas, there are no grey areas - Hamas does not accept Israel’s right to exist. Israel will know how to properly react. The only problem then will be with the United States. The Obama Administration has been keen on meeting with bad boys lately and Hamas definitely fits that bill.

Micah D. Halpern is a columnist and a social and political commentator. Read his latest book THUGS. He maintains The Micah Report at www.micahhalpern.com